%0 Journal Article %A Jonathon Weiner %A Wesley Winter %A Kyle G. Lundstedt %T Predicting Agency Prepayments in the Current Market Environment: Why Yesterday’s Predictive Models Won’t Hold Water Today %D 2010 %R 10.3905/jsf.2010.16.1.021 %J The Journal of Structured Finance %P 21-27 %V 16 %N 1 %X With mortgage rates near all-time lows, refinancing activity in agency-backed loans is driven almost entirely by credit and equity considerations. Formerly important drivers of refinancing such as incentive and burnout continue to play a role but fail to capture recent behavior unless updated with the “lock-out” effects of loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and credit. In addition, the contribution of defaults to agency pool prepayments is no longer insignificant for most pools and is dominant for certain vintages and coupons.TOPICS: MBS and residential mortgage loans, futures and forward contracts %U https://jsf.pm-research.com/content/iijstrfin/16/1/21.full.pdf